Holon Physics Seminar 3.1.17
Reconsidering Nuclear and Radiation Hazards
Dr. Yehoshua Sobol, Ariel University
January 03, 2017 | 14:30 | Room 424/8
Abstract:
Radiation hazards, historically linked to nuclear apocalypse, have been considerably overestimated. The linear no-threshold hypothesis (LNTH), based on the assumption that every radiation dose increment constitutes increased cancer risk for humans, arose in late 1950-s concurrently with the nuclear arms race. Mistreatment of experimental (epidemiological) data systematically lent support to LNTH.
The presentation will describe meta-analysis of several studies including Japanese atomic bomb survivors, Chernobyl and Fukushima residents, and children subjected to CT scans.
The results of the meta-analysis show that:
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the Japanese data lack statistical power to support LNTH.
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recently-acknowledged overdiagnosis of thyroid cancer (reaching 90% and more of the reported incidence) is the main factor of increase in cancer incidence after Chernobyl and Fukushima.
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the data fit demonstrating increased risk of cancer after CT scans in childhood is "too good to be honest", so the data have been probably manipulated somehow.
The consideration of radiation hazards will be prefaced by short consideration of nuclear detonations in comparison to nuclear-weapon-sized detonations of meteoroids in the atmosphere.
